How dry has it really been and do we need more hosepipe bans? | Breaking News & Latest UK Updates

How dry has it really been and do we need more hosepipe bans? — With talk of heatwaves and hot weather dominating conversation lately it's been easy to lose sight of just how dry it's been too. Hosepipe bans are al...

With talk of heatwaves and hot weather dominating conversation lately it's been easy to lose sight of just how dry it's been too.

Hosepipe bans are already in force for customers ofYorkshireandSouth East Waterwith other companies warning of similar action if nothing significant changes to water supplies.

The Environment Agency has already said that some areas are either in drought or a 'state of prolonged dry weather,external' and the National Drought Group will meet on Tuesday to discuss the latest situation.

In the UK during hot, dry spells we often start to make comparisons to the historic drought of the summer of 1976, but it's not always that straightforward.

Our dry spring and start to summer is increasingly apparent across parts of the UK

So many factors can lead to a drought that just looking at rainfall or water reserves isn't enough.

Population growth, urban expansion, changes in water usage over time - for example for supporting different industries - are all part of the mix as well as the more obvious groundwater or reservoir levels, plus rainfall totals and just as importantly - where it falls.

In the UK we have two definitions of drought. In meteorological terms it refers to a sustained period of dry weather, and in hydrological terms it is about a lack of water resources.

We tend to have hydrological droughts following the drier periods simply due to the lag between rain falling, and it getting through river systems and into storage such as a reservoir or groundwater aquifer.

Spring was the second driest on record for England, the sixth overall across the UK.

While spring rainfall is important, especially to river and reservoir levels, for the whole picture we also need to look at autumn and winter rainfall which feeds groundwater levels.

For UK scientists the hydrological or water year runs from October to September, which enables it to take into account often higher levels during the winter that recharge systems.

Analysis by BBC Weather shows that since the start of the latest hydrological year in October 2024, and up to the end of June 2025, rainfall is running approximately 20% below average.

This makes it one of the driest periods since the infamous 1976 drought.

Rainfall since the start of the 2024/2025 hydrological year has been around 20% below average

Some caution is needed when you directly compare years when droughts or hosepipe bans have been introduced, as some will be the result of cumulative dry conditions over more than one 12 month period.

However, it is interesting to note just how dry this hydrological year has been so far.

The last significant hosepipe ban in the UK was in the record-breaking summer of 2022 when atop temperature of 40. 3C was recordedat Coningsby, Lincolnshire. The ban affected nearly 20 million households.

By the start of spring that year, rainfall was standing broadly around average but that was followed by a summer that ranked among the hottest and driest for England.

With this combination of lack of rainfall and hot weather, parts of the UK went into a'flash' drought,external.

Similarly, in 1994/95, after the rain abundant winter, rainfall was above average but it turned much drier in the spring and summer leading to river and reservoir levels quickly depleting.

Consequently most UK areas went into drought by September 1995 which continued throughout the following year.

By comparison this current year has been drier than both these periods.

After prolonged dry and hot weather in the summer of 1976 water became so scarce that household supplies were shut off and standpipes were introduced.

Regarded as the most severe drought the UK has faced in modern times, it has acquired almost mythical status and become the 'benchmark'.

With below average rainfall throughout 1975, the situation didn't improve from the October to June 1976 with only 626mm of rain - far less than average.

Already from October 2024 to June 2025, we've had a total of 704mm, so in terms of rainfall we are in a better position.

What happens with the forecast for the rest of this summer though will be important and the reason behind why we've already seen water companies applying restrictions.

The 1976 drought is generally thought of as the most severe in UK history

While we'll see a bit of rain as this current heatwave comes to an end, longer-range forecasts suggest UK rainfall will still be below average.

Steve Turner, a hydrologist from the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, said: "The low river flows we are seeing in eastern Britain - which are exceptionally low in central and eastern England - are likely to continue for the July-September period."

Although for western areas he said flows are likely to be within the normal range.

While droughts are complex to forecast this might give us an indication that with drier than average weather on the way, we could well be seeing more widespread restrictions in the coming weeks or months.

Graphics produced by Becky Dale, BBC data visualisaton team

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